Probabiliti
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Everything you need to know about predicting on Probabiliti

Getting Started

What is Probabiliti?

Probabiliti is Nigeria's prediction market platform, built and operated by ZNL Gaming Limited and licensed by the National Lottery Regulation Commission (NLRC). It allows you to buy positions on the outcome of real-world events — sports, politics, entertainment, finance, and more.

Unlike traditional sports betting, Probabiliti uses an Automated Market Maker (AMM). This means prices are set automatically by the pool of money in each market, not by a bookmaker. The more people who predict YES, the higher the YES price goes — and vice versa.

How do I create an account?

  1. Visit probabiliti.ng and tap Sign Up.
  2. Enter your phone number.
  3. Verify your phone number with the OTP sent to you.
  4. Your account is created. You will receive a ₦500 welcome bonus in your wallet immediately.

Is Probabiliti legal in Nigeria?

Yes. Probabiliti is licensed and regulated by the National Lottery Regulation Commission (NLRC). ZNL Gaming Limited holds a valid operating licence. All fund movements are processed through Paystack, a CBN-licensed payment provider.

Who can use Probabiliti?

Probabiliti is open to Nigerian residents aged 18 and above. You must complete phone verification to create an account. Full withdrawal access requires KYC verification (BVN + government-issued ID).

Predictions & Markets

How does a prediction market work?

Each market is a question with two possible outcomes — YES or NO. For example: "Will Arsenal win the FA Cup?" You buy shares in the outcome you believe will happen. Each share costs between ₦0.01 and ₦1.00, depending on how many people have already predicted that outcome.

If you are correct when the market resolves, each share pays out ₦1.00. If you are wrong, your shares are worth ₦0.00.

What determines the price of a YES or NO share?

Price is set automatically by the Automated Market Maker (AMM) formula:

How much can I win?

Each share you hold in the winning outcome pays out ₦1.00 when the market resolves.

Example: You buy 500 YES shares at ₦0.40 each — spending ₦200. The market resolves YES. Your 500 shares pay out ₦500. Your profit is ₦300.

What happens if I buy shares and the price moves?

Prices change in real time as more people buy YES or NO shares. Your purchase is locked in at the price at the moment you buy. Later price movements do not change your existing shares.

Can I sell my shares before the market closes?

Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price at any time before the market closes. The proceeds are returned to your wallet immediately.

How are markets resolved?

When a market closes, the admin team verifies the real-world outcome using official sources (news, official results, regulatory data). The winning outcome is confirmed and all winning shares are paid out at ₦1.00 each. This typically happens within 24 hours of the event concluding.

Who creates markets?

  • Probabiliti admin team creates all standard public markets.
  • Pro (Premium) subscribers can create their own markets using the Create Market feature. All user-created markets require admin approval before going live and admin confirmation at resolution.

Wallet, Deposits & Withdrawals

How do I add money to my wallet?

  1. Go to Wallet in the navigation menu.
  2. Tap Deposit.
  3. Enter the amount you wish to deposit.
  4. Complete payment via card or bank transfer through Paystack.
  5. Funds appear in your Probabiliti wallet instantly.

What is the minimum deposit?

The minimum deposit is ₦500.

How do I withdraw my money?

  1. Go to Wallet and tap Withdraw.
  2. Enter the amount and your bank account details.
  3. Confirm the request.
  4. Withdrawals under ₦500,000 are processed automatically — funds arrive within minutes.
  5. Withdrawals of ₦500,000 and above are reviewed by our finance team before being processed.

What is the ₦500 welcome bonus?

Every new user receives ₦500 credited to their wallet on first login. This can be used to place predictions immediately. The bonus must be wagered at least once before any wallet balance (including winnings) can be withdrawn. This is a standard industry requirement to prevent abuse.

Why can't I withdraw my bonus balance?

Bonus credit (welcome bonus, cashback rewards, referral bonuses) must be used to place at least one prediction before it becomes withdrawable. Once you have wagered the bonus amount at least once, your full wallet balance — including any winnings — becomes available for withdrawal.

Are there withdrawal fees?

Probabiliti does not charge withdrawal fees. Standard bank transfer fees from Paystack may apply for certain transfer types.

XP, Tiers & Rewards

What is the XP system?

Experience Points (XP) is Probabiliti's loyalty system. You earn XP by using the platform — signing up, logging in daily, making predictions, winning, and referring friends. As your XP grows, you move up through tiers and unlock cashback rewards credited directly to your wallet.

How do I earn XP?

  • Sign up: +100 XP (one-time)
  • First prediction: +50 XP (one-time)
  • Daily login: +10 XP per day
  • 7-day login streak: +100 XP bonus
  • 30-day login streak: +500 XP bonus
  • Refer a friend (signs up): +200 XP
  • Refer a friend (makes first deposit): +300 XP + ₦500 cash bonus

What are the tiers?

There are six tiers: Starter (0–499 XP), Explorer (500–1,999 XP), Predictor (2,000–4,999 XP), Analyst (5,000–9,999 XP), Pro (10,000–24,999 XP), and Elite (25,000+ XP). You receive a cashback reward each time you cross into a new tier. Tiers never decrease.

How does the referral programme work?

  1. Go to your profile and copy your unique referral link.
  2. Share it with friends.
  3. When they sign up using your link, you earn +200 XP.
  4. When they make their first deposit, you earn +300 XP and a ₦500 cash bonus to your wallet.

Head-to-Head (H2H) Wagers

What is a Head-to-Head Wager?

Head-to-Head (H2H) is a feature that lets you wager directly against one or more specific people — not against the general market. You challenge someone, agree on the terms, and both parties put their stake in escrow. The winner is paid out automatically.

Who can create a Head-to-Head Wager?

All Probabiliti users can create and participate in H2H wagers.

How many people can join a group H2H?

Between 2 and 50 participants. Individual 1v1 wagers are the simplest form.

How does the outcome work?

When an event concludes, both parties must confirm the outcome. If both agree, the winner is paid out automatically from escrow. If there is a disagreement, the dispute goes to Probabiliti admin for arbitration. The admin's decision is final.

Is there a platform fee on H2H wagers?

Yes. Probabiliti charges a 3% fee on the total wager amount upon resolution. This is deducted before the winner receives their payout.

Security & Responsible Play

Is my money safe?

All funds are held and processed through Paystack, a CBN-licensed payment processor. Probabiliti does not hold user funds directly. Your wallet balance represents a claim on funds held in your Paystack account.

Responsible Play

Probabiliti is a prediction platform, not a get-rich-quick scheme. Please only predict with money you can afford to lose. If you feel that prediction activity is affecting your finances, relationships, or wellbeing, please contact us and we will help you set limits or take a break.

Still have questions? Contact us at help@probabiliti.ng